Pre race predictions

I've been busy, so no post-qualifying post has appeared. I'll write a review of both qualifying and the race at some stage. Using formula1.com's information the grid, with weights is as follows.

1. Jenson Button, Brawn GP, 647.5 kg (Brawn said his cars had 20 laps, based on which the other estimates are made)
2. Kimi Raikkonen, Ferrari, 644 - 18 laps
3. Rubens Barrichello, Brawn GP, 648 - 21 laps
4. Sebastian Vettel, Red Bull, 631.5 - 13 laps
5. Felipe Massa, Ferrari, 643.5 - 17 laps
6. Nico Rosberg, Williams, 642 - 17 laps
7. Heikki Kovalainen, McLaren, 644 - 18 laps
8. Mark Webber, Red Bull, 646.5 - 19 laps
9. Fernando Alonso, Renault, 654 - 24 laps
10. Kazuki Nakajima, Williams, 668 - 31 laps
11. Sebastien Buemi, Toro Rosso, 670 - 32
12. Nelson Piquet, Renault, 673.1 - 34
13. Giancarlo Fisichella, Force India, 693 - 42
14. Sebastien Bourdais, Toro Rosso, 699.5 - 45
15. Adrian Sutil, Force India, 670 - 32
16. Nick Heidfeld, BMW Sauber, 680 - 37
17. Robert Kubica, BMW Sauber, 696 - 43
18. Jarno Trulli, Toyota, 688.3 - 40
19. Timo Glock, Toyota, 700.8 - 46 - will start from pits
20. Lewis Hamilton, McLaren, 645.5 - 19 - gearbox change

Bold indicates KERS, italics indicates hitting the wall in qualifying
Predictions: Hamilton to be racy early on, but with little reward.

Win: Button
2nd: Barrichello
3rd: Raikkonen
4th: Vettel
5th: Kovaleinen
6th: Alonso
7th: Massa
8th: Rosberg

I half-expect Raikkonen and Button to collide off the start, causing havoc and rendering the grid meaningless.

The grid and weights

Going into qualifying, Brawn and Barrichello were confident of pole. Coming out, Button was surprised by it. Were those comments designed to affect Red Bull's strategy? Who knows, however, given the FIA's release of the weights of the cars, we can assess performance in final qualifying.

As usual, the grid is displayed below by row, with the odd numbers on the left (pole listed first) and with my estimate of first pit stop lap (based on fuel consumption figures from Williams) in brackets. KERS cars are highlighted in bold.

Front row: Button (16) Vettel (18)
2nd row: Barrichello (17) Massa (20)
3rd row: Webber (18) Glock (16)
4th row: Trulli (20) Alonso (15-16)
5th row: Rosberg (25-26) Kubica (22)
6th row: Nakajima (29) Piquet (30)
7th row: Heidfeld (29) Hamilton (32)
8th row: Buemi (30) Raikkonen (28)
9th row: Bourdais (26) Kovaleinen (21)
Back row: Sutil (29) Fisichella (20)

It is a 66 lap race, so 16 laps represents a straightforward 3-stopper, whilst 22 is the equivalent figure for a 2-stopper. However, given the apparent slowness of the hard tyre, expect some to have long stints on softs to avoid using hard tyres for more than they have to.

Given all that, expect everyone to start on softs, for Massa to lead into turn 1, for Vettel and Webber to pit on consecutive laps (their weights were identical). The top 8, plus Kovaleinen and Fisichella might all 3-stop, but nobody will 1-stop (if they did, Piquet or Buemi might start on hards, then use softs for 36 laps, which is surely pushing things too far).

Predictions for tomorrow's result in next post (expect it at 19:15).

Grid and weights

Using a car minimum weight of 605kg, and fuel consumption of 2.88kg/lap (thanks to Williams) and allowing some excess weight for driver weight loss (heat leads to water loss) and fuel for the formation lap and the drive to the grid, I estimate that the cars will stop as follows (pole on left):

Front row: Trulli (12) Glock (10/11)
2nd row: Vettel (16) Button (14)
3rd row: Hamilton (14) Barrichello (12/13)
4th row: Alonso (13) Massa (18)
5th row: Rosberg (20) Raikkonen (20)
6th row: Kovaleinen (13) Nakajima (23/24)
7th row: Kubica (30) Heidfeld (29)
8th row: Piquet (22/23) Buemi (23)
9th row: Fisichella (13/14) Webber (15)
10th row: Sutil (23) Bourdais (19)

KERS cars in brackets, drivers I expect to start on softs in italics. It is a 57 lap race, and I'm working on the assumption that teams will choose a 2 stop strategy (except perhaps BMW). I also expect Massa and Bourdais to take long middle stints, to provide a short super-soft period.

Having said all that, the super-softs are designed to work in the conditions expected tomorrow, so shouldn't degrade as they did in Melbourne.