Pre race predictions

I've been busy, so no post-qualifying post has appeared. I'll write a review of both qualifying and the race at some stage. Using formula1.com's information the grid, with weights is as follows.

1. Jenson Button, Brawn GP, 647.5 kg (Brawn said his cars had 20 laps, based on which the other estimates are made)
2. Kimi Raikkonen, Ferrari, 644 - 18 laps
3. Rubens Barrichello, Brawn GP, 648 - 21 laps
4. Sebastian Vettel, Red Bull, 631.5 - 13 laps
5. Felipe Massa, Ferrari, 643.5 - 17 laps
6. Nico Rosberg, Williams, 642 - 17 laps
7. Heikki Kovalainen, McLaren, 644 - 18 laps
8. Mark Webber, Red Bull, 646.5 - 19 laps
9. Fernando Alonso, Renault, 654 - 24 laps
10. Kazuki Nakajima, Williams, 668 - 31 laps
11. Sebastien Buemi, Toro Rosso, 670 - 32
12. Nelson Piquet, Renault, 673.1 - 34
13. Giancarlo Fisichella, Force India, 693 - 42
14. Sebastien Bourdais, Toro Rosso, 699.5 - 45
15. Adrian Sutil, Force India, 670 - 32
16. Nick Heidfeld, BMW Sauber, 680 - 37
17. Robert Kubica, BMW Sauber, 696 - 43
18. Jarno Trulli, Toyota, 688.3 - 40
19. Timo Glock, Toyota, 700.8 - 46 - will start from pits
20. Lewis Hamilton, McLaren, 645.5 - 19 - gearbox change

Bold indicates KERS, italics indicates hitting the wall in qualifying
Predictions: Hamilton to be racy early on, but with little reward.

Win: Button
2nd: Barrichello
3rd: Raikkonen
4th: Vettel
5th: Kovaleinen
6th: Alonso
7th: Massa
8th: Rosberg

I half-expect Raikkonen and Button to collide off the start, causing havoc and rendering the grid meaningless.

Saturday practice

Shorter session, with everyone on track an awful lot. Everyone did between 20 and 29 laps, which implies an average of 11-12 cars on track at any time. Traffic WILL be a problem in Q1, perhaps even in Q2 and Q3. Anyway, times by team:

1. Renault - F. Alonso - 1:15.164
2. Brawn - J. Button - 1:15.233 - 0.069
3. McLaren-Kovaleinen-1:15.278-0.114
5. Ferrari - F. Massa - 1:15.293 - 0.129
8. Red Bull - S. Vettel - 1:15.722 - 0.558
9. Williams - Rosberg - 1:15.758 - 0.594
12. Force India- Sutil - 1:16.228 - 1.064
13.Toro Rosso-Bourdais-1:16.301-1.137
17. Toyota - T. Glock - 1:16.527 - 1.363
18. BMW - R. Kubica - 1:16.599 - 1.435

Too close to call, in other words. In Q1, it is worth everyone's while attempting as many laps as possible, to try and find a clear track - making it implausible that everyone else will succeed.

Luck will play a key role in qualifying, and since qualifying plays such a key role in the race, lcuk matters a lot here.

Friday predictions

BMW and Toyota were VERY slow in practice. Don't know what to make of that - it is only practice after all, and Kubica had problems that stopped him running at all in the second session, perhaps they'll both improve.

Barrichello beat Button in both sessions, though not by much in the second session. Again, probably doesn't mean much, so I'll try not to take it into account.

What is very clear, is that traffic will be the major issue of qualifying. Even when 5-10 drivers were on the track they were getting in each other's way. Expect 2 big names (Brawn, Red Bull, Ferrari, Alonso, Rosberg, Hamilton) to fail to make Q3, probably Q2 even.

As for the race, it depends on strategy, safety cars and qualifying position. Before I know these, I can only stab in the dark, but here goes:

Win: Barrichello
2nd: Vettel
3rd: Button
4th: Webber
5th: Alonso
6th: Hamilton
7th: Rosberg (finally completing a Monaco GP)
8th: Trulli

But realistically it is any 8 from 20 (yes, even Force India, even in the dry).

Thursday Practice

The tag will say Friday, but that is just for consistency's sake. Monaco being so special, "Friday" practice happened yesterday. Simple post, this, to gauge gaps between teams, it will look at total laps, fastest time and the difference between the sessions.

Session 1:
Brawn - Barrichello- 1:17.189 - 0.000 - 26+28 = 54 laps total
Ferrari - F. Massa - 1:17.499 - 0.310 - 31+30 = 61
McLaren - Hamilton - 1:17.578 - 0.389 - 26+30 = 56
Williams - Nakajima- 1:18.000 - 0.811 - 29+27 = 56
Renault - F. Alonso- 1:18.283 - 1.094 - 31+36 = 67 (Piquet ran lots of laps)
Red Bull - Webber - 1:18.348 - 1.159 - 22+16 = 38 (Vettel engine blown,no penalty)
Toro Rosso - Buemi - 1:18.695 - 1.506 - 37+31 = 68 (Buemi ran more laps than anyone else)
Force India-Fisichella-1:19.534-2.345 - 28+24 = 52
BMW - Robert Kubica- 1:19.560 - 2.371 - 20+23 = 43 (Kubica had mechanical trouble)
Toyota - Timo Glock- 1:19.698 - 2.509 - 24+28 = 52

Session 2:
Williams - Rosberg - 1:15.243 - 0.000 - 45+43 = 88
McLaren-Hamilton-1:15.445 - 0.202 - 35+45 = 80
Brawn-Barrichello- 1:15.590 - 0.347 - 41+36 = 77
Ferrari - F. Massa - 1:15.832 - 0.589 - 42+43 = 87
Red Bull - S. Vettel - 1:15.847 - 0.604 - 33+27 = 60
Renault - N. Piquet - 1:16.286 - 1.043 - 43+39 = 82
Force India-A. Sutil- 1:16.675 - 1.432 - 38+45 = 83
Toyota-Jarno Trulli- 1:16.915 - 1.672 - 43+45 = 88
Toro Rosso-Buemi- 1:16.983 - 1.740 - 48+48=96
BMW - N. Heidfeld - 1:17.109 - 1.866 - 40+2 = 42 (Kubica blew his engine early on)

You'll notice how much quicker the 2nd session was compared to the first. Saturday will be quicker still. Drivers in bold beat their teammates in both sessions. Remember, though, that Thursday is worthless in F1 (except for sponsors).

Tyres: Super-softs and softs have been brought here, as an exception to the "2 compounds apart" rule, which will reduce the need for leading teams to run on softs in Q1. This will further empower them to 2-stop, on fresh tyres throughout (2 stints on super-softs, 1 on softs, I think). Weaker teams will 1 stop and put the longer stint on the soft (harder) tyre, to avoid problems faced in some years.

Weather: looks like it will be clear and dry, which spoils the fun somewhat.

Monaco preview

Weather doesn't look like being important, so expect a fairly boring race. What will matter here is mechanical grip, and those experts I've heard say that it favours Brawn, and perhaps Toyota, but not to rule out Ferrari, Red Bull, Alonso or Hamilton. Which is to say, that half the field is worth backing. To that list I'd like to add Rosberg, who is usually quick around Monte Carlo, and add in a note that anyhting can go wrong, and usually does.

Despite this, I'm making some fairly tame predictions:

Win: Webber
2nd: Barrichello
3rd: Button
4th: Glock
5th: Vettel
6th: Massa
7th: Alonso
8th: Hamilton

Obviously, rain will change everything (go Sutil, go, go) as would any safety cars/virtuoso performances.

Tyres: soft and super-soft here, which is an exception to the usual "one compound apart" rule - this will reduce the benefits of extreme strategies, and probably return us to the "2 stops for frontrunners, 1 stop for the rest" strategies of years gone by.