Turkey preview - Qualifying update

Red Bull and Brawn share the top two rows on the grid. I'm attempting a different format for displaying the grid, and please forgive it. The gap listed is that between the driver and the man who finished directly in front of them, gaps in bold are beneath 0.1s, showing where things were close.

It is a 58 lap race (as are quite a few, these days) and so 1/4 distance is 14.5 laps (3 stops, equally spaced), 1/3 distance is 19.3 laps (2 stops equally spaced). However, the lack of faith in the soft tyre this weekend is such that Alonso and Vettel are probably taking a short first stint on softs, before 2 stints on hards. The one-stoppers might in fact 2-stop, if any repeat of Melbourne/Monaco happened, to avoid over-using the softs.

Predictions to follow in next post

Pre race predictions

I've been busy, so no post-qualifying post has appeared. I'll write a review of both qualifying and the race at some stage. Using formula1.com's information the grid, with weights is as follows.

1. Jenson Button, Brawn GP, 647.5 kg (Brawn said his cars had 20 laps, based on which the other estimates are made)
2. Kimi Raikkonen, Ferrari, 644 - 18 laps
3. Rubens Barrichello, Brawn GP, 648 - 21 laps
4. Sebastian Vettel, Red Bull, 631.5 - 13 laps
5. Felipe Massa, Ferrari, 643.5 - 17 laps
6. Nico Rosberg, Williams, 642 - 17 laps
7. Heikki Kovalainen, McLaren, 644 - 18 laps
8. Mark Webber, Red Bull, 646.5 - 19 laps
9. Fernando Alonso, Renault, 654 - 24 laps
10. Kazuki Nakajima, Williams, 668 - 31 laps
11. Sebastien Buemi, Toro Rosso, 670 - 32
12. Nelson Piquet, Renault, 673.1 - 34
13. Giancarlo Fisichella, Force India, 693 - 42
14. Sebastien Bourdais, Toro Rosso, 699.5 - 45
15. Adrian Sutil, Force India, 670 - 32
16. Nick Heidfeld, BMW Sauber, 680 - 37
17. Robert Kubica, BMW Sauber, 696 - 43
18. Jarno Trulli, Toyota, 688.3 - 40
19. Timo Glock, Toyota, 700.8 - 46 - will start from pits
20. Lewis Hamilton, McLaren, 645.5 - 19 - gearbox change

Bold indicates KERS, italics indicates hitting the wall in qualifying
Predictions: Hamilton to be racy early on, but with little reward.

Win: Button
2nd: Barrichello
3rd: Raikkonen
4th: Vettel
5th: Kovaleinen
6th: Alonso
7th: Massa
8th: Rosberg

I half-expect Raikkonen and Button to collide off the start, causing havoc and rendering the grid meaningless.

Qualifying

A full grid and weights post will follow, eventually (weights are published on the FIA website at some point after qualifying, hopefully I'll hve a post for you by 6pm).

Final practise - I didn't watch it, but the top 10 featured neither Brawn not Red Bull. Glock broke down after setting the fastest time, whilst Bourdais in the Toro Rosso only managed 7 laps (most managed 15-18). I assume (couldn't find mention of it on ITV or BBC sites) that he too had technical problems.

Q1 - Lap times so close that everyone had to run on super-softs, to ensure a top 15 space. Vettel, Trulli, Hamilton and the Brawns were the top 5, whilst Webber was dramtically blocked by Sutil and didn't get through. Back 5: Sutil, Buemi, Fisichella, Webber, Bourdais. Sutil was later penalised 3 places and will start 19th, behind Webber in 18th.

Q2 - Everyone ran on scrubbed softs to set a "banker" lap, and that dramatically improved on super softs. Vettel, Glock, Trulli, Raikkonen and Barrichello were top 5, whilst Kovaleinen, Nakajima, Kubica, Heifeld and Piquet missed out on the top 10 shootout.

Q3 - Again, most drivers took two runs, using any new sets of softs that they had at the end. I suspect the Toyotas are light, but the top 10 are listed below. Looking at sector times, Hamilton (sector 2) and Barrichello (sector 3) appear to have dropped time, but otherwise the times were consistent across the lap.

Pole - Trulli
2nd - Glock (0.281s)
3rd - Vettel (0.584s)
4th - Button (0.613s)
5th - Hamilton (0.765s)
6th - Barrichello (0.808s)
7th - Alonso (1.147s)
8th - Massa (1.387s)
9th - Rosberg (1.703s)
10th - Raikkonen (1.949s)

Expect Rosberg to be heavy, the other slower cars might have run out of fresh super-softs. Trulli's lap was only 0.760s slower than his Q2 time, so he can't have been very heavy.