2012 likely and wishlist

Self-explanatory title to this post, so straight to the grid predictions:

Red Bull: Vettel, Webber
McLaren: Hamilton, Button
Ferrari: Alonso, Massa
Mercedes: Rosberg, Schumacher
(quick note: when did the top 4 teams last run identical lineups 3 years running?)
Renault: Kubica, Petrov (unless Kubica unfit, otherwise Senna or Grosjean)
Sauber: Kobayashi, Perez
Force India: Sutil, Di Resta
Toro Rosso: Ricciardo, Alguersuari
Williams: Maldonado, Senna (or Sutil if Senna at Renault)
Lotus: Kovaleinen, Trulli
Hispania: Liuzzi, Grosjean
Virgin: Glock, van der Garde

Put simply, not many changes. Having made that set of predictions, below I'll list my preferred grid:

Red Bull: Vettel, Rosberg
McLaren: Hamilton, Button
Ferrari: Alonso, Kobayashi
Mercedes: Schumacher, Di Resta
Renault: Kubica, Webber
Sauber: Massa, Perez
Force India: Kovaleinen, Hulkenberg
Toro Rosso: Ricciardo, Senna
Williams: Barrichello, Maldonado
Lotus: Massa, Vergne
Hispania: Alguersuari, Sutil
Virgin: Glock, Grosjean

2010 lineup (amended)

Well 2009 is nearly over, so what awaits us next year? Let's run through the grid in order:
In bold are some edits made AFTER the Abu Dhabi GP

Brawn-Mercedes
1 - Button (90% chance) 95%
2 - Rosberg (70%) 90%
If not - Barrichello, Heidfeld Heidfeld

Red Bull-Renault (or Mercedes) Renault
3 - Vettel (100%)
4 - Webber (90%)
If not - Raikkonen

McLaren Mercedes
5 - Hamilton (100%)
6 - Raikkonen (60%) 80%
If not - Button, Kovaleinen, Heidfeld

Ferrari
7 - Alonso (100%)
8 - Massa (90%)
If not - Fisichella

Toyota
9 - Trulli (60%) Kobayashi (90%)
10 - Kobayashi (50%)
If not - Raikkonen, Glock, Barrichello, Nakajima, Heidfeld, Sato

Williams - Cosworth (Renault, Mercedes?) Cosworth
11 - Barrichello (70%) CONFIRMED
12 - Hulkenberg (80%) CONFIRMED
If not - Rosberg, Glock, Kovaleinen, Heidfeld

Renault
14 - Kubica (100%)
15 - Grosjean (60%) Glock (70%)
If not - di Grassi, Senna, Heidfeld, Glock

Force India Mercedes
16 - Sutil (80%) 90%
17 - Liuzzi (50%) Kovaleinen (50%)
If not - Paffett, Senna, Heidfeld, Glock, Kovaleinen

Toro Rosso Ferrari
18 - Buemi (90%)
19 - Alguersuari (90%)
If not - Hartley, Bortolotti

?Lotus - Cosworth?
??
??
From - Trulli, Heidfeld, Kovaleinen, Davidson, Glock, etc

Campos - Cosworth
Senna CONFIRMED
??
From - De La Rosa? Any of the above drivers who aren't chosen

US F1 Cosworth
??
??
From - Heidfeld, rookies, Americans, any of the drivers who miss out above

Manor/Virgin - Cosworth
??
??
From - Anyone. Suggestions welcome

Turkey predictions

Whilst I haven't published any predictions so far, I have made a note of my views as they shifted across the weekend.

Thursday:
Button, Barrichello, Massa, Vettel, Webber, Alonso, Rosberg, Glock

Friday (after practice):
Massa, Button, Barrichello, Raikkonen, Webber, Alonso, Hamilton, Rosberg

Saturday (after qualifying):
Vettel, Button, Barrichello, Webber, Massa, Trulli, Raikkonen, Rosberg

Put simply, Brawn's slow practice pace didn't fool me, whereas Red Bulls did. McLaren and BMW flattered to deceive yesterday as well, although Kubica did make it into Q3 for only the 2nd time since Malaysia.

I don't forsee much carnage tomorrow, but we'll only find out once the race is underway. Note: Fisichella has struggled to survive the first corner here (there was a piece in the preview show for ualifying, showing him spinning or crashing every time he's been here, on lap one at turn one).

Pre race predictions

I've been busy, so no post-qualifying post has appeared. I'll write a review of both qualifying and the race at some stage. Using formula1.com's information the grid, with weights is as follows.

1. Jenson Button, Brawn GP, 647.5 kg (Brawn said his cars had 20 laps, based on which the other estimates are made)
2. Kimi Raikkonen, Ferrari, 644 - 18 laps
3. Rubens Barrichello, Brawn GP, 648 - 21 laps
4. Sebastian Vettel, Red Bull, 631.5 - 13 laps
5. Felipe Massa, Ferrari, 643.5 - 17 laps
6. Nico Rosberg, Williams, 642 - 17 laps
7. Heikki Kovalainen, McLaren, 644 - 18 laps
8. Mark Webber, Red Bull, 646.5 - 19 laps
9. Fernando Alonso, Renault, 654 - 24 laps
10. Kazuki Nakajima, Williams, 668 - 31 laps
11. Sebastien Buemi, Toro Rosso, 670 - 32
12. Nelson Piquet, Renault, 673.1 - 34
13. Giancarlo Fisichella, Force India, 693 - 42
14. Sebastien Bourdais, Toro Rosso, 699.5 - 45
15. Adrian Sutil, Force India, 670 - 32
16. Nick Heidfeld, BMW Sauber, 680 - 37
17. Robert Kubica, BMW Sauber, 696 - 43
18. Jarno Trulli, Toyota, 688.3 - 40
19. Timo Glock, Toyota, 700.8 - 46 - will start from pits
20. Lewis Hamilton, McLaren, 645.5 - 19 - gearbox change

Bold indicates KERS, italics indicates hitting the wall in qualifying
Predictions: Hamilton to be racy early on, but with little reward.

Win: Button
2nd: Barrichello
3rd: Raikkonen
4th: Vettel
5th: Kovaleinen
6th: Alonso
7th: Massa
8th: Rosberg

I half-expect Raikkonen and Button to collide off the start, causing havoc and rendering the grid meaningless.

Friday predictions

BMW and Toyota were VERY slow in practice. Don't know what to make of that - it is only practice after all, and Kubica had problems that stopped him running at all in the second session, perhaps they'll both improve.

Barrichello beat Button in both sessions, though not by much in the second session. Again, probably doesn't mean much, so I'll try not to take it into account.

What is very clear, is that traffic will be the major issue of qualifying. Even when 5-10 drivers were on the track they were getting in each other's way. Expect 2 big names (Brawn, Red Bull, Ferrari, Alonso, Rosberg, Hamilton) to fail to make Q3, probably Q2 even.

As for the race, it depends on strategy, safety cars and qualifying position. Before I know these, I can only stab in the dark, but here goes:

Win: Barrichello
2nd: Vettel
3rd: Button
4th: Webber
5th: Alonso
6th: Hamilton
7th: Rosberg (finally completing a Monaco GP)
8th: Trulli

But realistically it is any 8 from 20 (yes, even Force India, even in the dry).

Monaco preview

Weather doesn't look like being important, so expect a fairly boring race. What will matter here is mechanical grip, and those experts I've heard say that it favours Brawn, and perhaps Toyota, but not to rule out Ferrari, Red Bull, Alonso or Hamilton. Which is to say, that half the field is worth backing. To that list I'd like to add Rosberg, who is usually quick around Monte Carlo, and add in a note that anyhting can go wrong, and usually does.

Despite this, I'm making some fairly tame predictions:

Win: Webber
2nd: Barrichello
3rd: Button
4th: Glock
5th: Vettel
6th: Massa
7th: Alonso
8th: Hamilton

Obviously, rain will change everything (go Sutil, go, go) as would any safety cars/virtuoso performances.

Tyres: soft and super-soft here, which is an exception to the usual "one compound apart" rule - this will reduce the benefits of extreme strategies, and probably return us to the "2 stops for frontrunners, 1 stop for the rest" strategies of years gone by.

Post qualifying prediction

Given Button on pole, and Massa 4th, with KERS, it should be an interesting race tomorrow. My race predictions are as follows:

Win - Button
2nd - Massa
3rd - Barrichello
4th - Vettel
5th - Trulli
6th - Webber
7th - Rosberg
8th - Alonso

The most interesting feature tomorrow might well be Raikkonen's progress. He starts 16th, in a car that could have made the 2nd row. He'll also have more unused soft tyres than most (having expected to use them in Q2 and Q3). He's a good outside bet for points.

Friday Predictions - Barcelona

Friday partice is as uninformative as ever. Many teams were trying out new parts and following their own schedules (especially Toyota, going from second fastest to slowest between the sessions, see below).

My updated predictions show little change in my beliefs.

Win: Barrichello (although Button looks quicker in qualy spec, and pole matters here)
2nd: Button (no loss of faith in team Brawn)
3rd: Vettel (think Red Bull have better race pace than Toyota)
4th: Glock
5th: Alonso (show pony Q3 lap, then takes advantage of KERS in the race)
6th: Webber (due a better finish, but that's been true for years)
7th: Kubica (think a BMW might make Q3, and he'd be the more likely of the pair - no KERS though)
8th: Rosberg (surely the Williams team will make some hay while the sun, umm, sets)

Preview - Barcelona

I forgot to include my Thursday predictions here. Actually, I didn't make any, but if I had, they would have been along the lines of:
Win: Barrichello
2nd: Button
3rd: Trulli
4th: Vettel
5th: Glock
6th: Hamilton
7th: Alonso
8th: Rosberg.

European racing, here we come! Friday details to follow soon...

Pre-race predictions

Weights have been announced, and my estimates are for earlier stops than predicted by the BBC (by about 1 lap each) and James Allen (about 2 laps). Hopefully this time we'll actually be able to compare.
Rubens made an interesting comment after qualifying. Apart from the fact that the car isn't as quick over a single lap as some of its rivals (Red Bull and Toyota, even McLaren now) he said that he lost time because he was held up on his out lap. This meant he couldn't heat his tyres properly. This reminded me of the tyre-war days, when any Michelin car would do an extra slow parade lap, to prevent Michael Schumacher from warming his tyres properly. Brawn's rivals, take note. ITV-F1s article is available here
James Allen also notes that the soft tyre is quicker than the medium, even on longer runs, so expect almost everyone (except the BMWs who are going past half-way) to start the race on them.

Anyway, time for my top 8:
Win: Trulli
2nd: Button
3rd: Vettel
4th: Barrichello
5th: Glock
6th: Hamilton
7th: Massa
8th: Alonso

Looking back, I see I've picked the same top 5, in a different order, every time this weekend. Let's see how that turns out tomorrow, then.

Predictions

Dry race, hot race. Should be easy for Brawn. Toyota, BMW and Ferrari tested here over the winter, so Toyota might be a threat.

My official Thursday picks:
Win: Rubens Barrichello (I fear I'll continue to pick him until he actually wins)
2nd: Jenson Button (the heat and dry conditions should make this easy)
3rd: Timo Glock
4th: Jarno Trulli (dry conditions and winter tests should bump them above Red Bull)
5th: Sebastian Vettel
6th: Nico Rosberg (has a good record here, by his standards)
7th: Kazuki Nakajima (due a good performance)
8th: Lewis Hamilton (best of the rest)

As ever, we'll know more tomorrow