10 November 2010

This weekends battles

You may have heard about the fight for the drivers' title and I detail a short version of the permutations below, but that isn't the only thing up for grabs. The prize money in F1 is determined by constructors' championship position and there are some places up for grabs, some more so than others.

Realistically, drivers only care about winning titles. Having a 4th, an 8th or a 14th on your CV doesn't matter much, compared to one place higher or lower. Therefore I will only analyse the title hunt:

Alonso will win if:
  • He finishes 1st or 2nd
  • Webber finishes 2nd and Alonso finishes 4th (assuming Vettel wins) or 5th (otherwise)

Webber will win if:

  • He finishes 1st AND Alonso does not finish 2nd
  • He finishes 2nd AND Vettel does not win AND Alonso finishes 6th or lower

Vettel will win if:

  • He finishes 1st AND Alonso finishes 5th or lower
  • He finishes 2nd AND Alonso finishes 9th or lower AND Webber finishes 5th or lower

Hamilton will win if:

  • He wins AND Alonso does not score AND Webber finishes 6th or lower AND Vettel finishes 3rd or lower


  • Ferrari need to gain 32 points on McLaren (assuming a win) or a 2-3 finish with McLaren scoring no points at all to finish 2nd
  • Force India must outscore Williams by 2 points or by 1 if they achieve a 4th place finish to secure 6th, UNLESS
  • Sauber must outscore Force India by 24 points and Williams by 25 to join the battle for 6th
  • Toro Rosso must outscore Sauber by 33 points to finish 8th
  • Lotus, Virgin or Hispania must outscore Toro Rosso by 11 points to finish 9th
  • In the fight for 10th place Lotus will win UNLESS either Virgin or Hispania secure a top 11 finish
  • There is no prize money for 11th, so it doesn't matter much that Virgin require a 13th place finish or better to overtake Hispania

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