2011 grid - by rumour

With numbers based on current championship standings:

RED BULL: 1. Webber, 2. Vettel.
McLAREN: 3. Hamilton, 4. Button
FERRARI: 5. Alonso, 6. Massa
MERCEDES: 7. Schumacher, 8. Rosberg (if we believe Schumi's superstition about odd numbers)
RENAULT: 9. Kubica, 10. Raikkonen (how good would that be, alternatively Petrov)
FORCE INDIA: 11. Sutil, 12. Liuzzi (Liuzzi surely under threat, but has apparently signed)
WILLIAMS: 14. Barrichello, 15. Hulkenberg (Rubens began his career in car #14)
SAUBER: 16. Heidfeld, 17. Kobayashi
TORO ROSSO: 18. Buemi, 19. Alguersuari (surely time for both to prove themselves or give up)
LOTUS: 20. Kovaleinen, 21. Trulli (although Petrov may be placed here by Renault)
VIRGIN: 22. Glock, 23. D'Ambrosio (subject to Glock not getting better drive and latter finding sponsorship)
HISPANIA: 24. De La Rosa, 25. Senna (subject to sufficient Spanish sponsorship, presumably)

Hard done by drivers:
1. Chandhok - did all that could be expected of him, but money talks at the back of the grid
2. Maldonado - won GP2 title, which is usually enough to secure a seat. He even has Nicolas Todt for an agent, so expect him to appear if someone loses their seat for sponsorship reasons.

Lucky drivers:
1. Massa - has underperformed this year, returning to his pre-2008 form. There are probably 6 or 7 drivers in slower cars who'd love his Ferrari seat.
2. Schumacher - won't make any pundit's "top 10 drivers of the year" list, perhaps he'll make a "shock" retirement announcement at the end of the season.
3. Liuzzi - Force India would do well to pick up Chandhok (Indian after all) or Maldonado in his place, but probably won't.
4=. Both Toro Rosso drivers - neither has shown any exceptional talent, so I would expect Red Bull to try and place another of its drivers (Chandhok?) in their place, but there's no sign of that happening.
6. Trulli - outclassed by Kovaleinen all year long and hasn't the "rookie" excuse that other overshadowed drivers (Hulkenberg, Petrov) could more validly use.
7. De La Rosa - if it is true that Hispania are so desperate for experience/someone Spanish/sponsorship that they'd take him on

November 18th version of grid

Button to McLaren, Mercedes buy-out Brawn... So much happening, so little time!
Here's the latest grid, as I understand it (CONFIRMED DRIVERS in capitals).

McLAREN: 1. BUTTON 2. HAMILTON (Mercedes engine)
MERCEDES: 3. ROSBERG 4. Heidfeld (maybe Kubica if Renault pull out)
RED BULL: 5. VETTEL 6. WEBBER (Renault engine)
FERRARI: 7. ALONSO 8. MASSA (not sure of driver numbers)
TOYOTA: withdrawn - penalties likely since they signed Concorde agreement to 2012.
SAUBER: 9. Heidfeld 10. A Ferrari junior (Ferrari engines, place not confirmed until penalty for Toyota sorted)
WILLIAMS: 11. BARRICHELLO 12. HULKENBERG (Cosworth engines)
RENAULT: 14. KUBICA 15. Di Grassi (may withdraw, Grosjean and many others in frame for drive)
FORCE INDIA: 16. Sutil 17. De La Rosa (Mercedes engine, Sutil near confirmed, Liuzzi contender for other seat, as are 6 others, approx)
TORO ROSSO: 18. BUEMI 19. Alguersuari (Ferrari engine, Bortolotti and others in contention for #2 drive)
CAMPOS META: 20. SENNA 21. Alguersuari (Cosworth engine, preference for a Spanish driver, numbers 20-27 unknown)
US F1: 22. Wurz 23. Andretti (Cosworth engine, little is known about driver choices)
MANOR (VIRGIN): 24. GLOCK 25. Piquet (Cosworth engine, little known about 2nd driver)
LOTUS: 26. Kovaleinen 27. Trulli(Cosworth engine, 1 driver signed but anonymous)

There are 13 drives still to fight over and I'll list 20 drivers below who stand a decent chance:

Drivers not yet confirmed (from above list, likely to get drives):
1. Heidfeld (Mercedes or Sauber)
2. Sutil (Force India)
3. Alguersuari (Toro Rosso or Campos Meta)
4. Wurz (US F1)
5. Kovaleinen (Lotus or Campos)
6. Trulli (Lotus or USF1)

With a fair chance (above list and otherwise):
7. Kobayashi (any)
8. Di Grassi (Renault)

9. De La Rosa (Campos or Force India)

10. Grosjean (Renault or new team)
11. Liuzzi (Force India or new team)
12. Sato (Lotus or any)
13. Davidson (Manor or any)
14. Bortollotti (Toro Rosso, Sauber or Campos)
15. Carroll (Manor or any)
16. Soucek (any)
17. Andretti (USF1)
18. Pantano (any new)
19. Piquet jnr (any new)
20. Petrov (any new)

Amended best-guess grid 2010

*indicates far from certain, alternatives/explanation in brackets)

Brawn - Mercedes
1. Jenson Button
2. Nico Rosberg

Red Bull *Renault (Mercedes blocked by McLaren, Ferrari unlikely due to previous strife)
3. Sebastian Vettel
4. Mark Webber

McLaren Mercedes
5. Lewis Hamilton
*6. Kimi Räikkönen (Heidfeld, Glock, even Kovaleinen)

Ferrari
7. Felipe Massa
8. Fernando Alonso (not sure which way around the numbering will go)

Toyota - *will not exist, nor be directly replaced

Sauber Qadbak Ferrari
9. Nick Heidfeld
10. * (Kobayashi, Bortolotti, many others in with a chance here)

Williams Cosworth
11. Rubens Barrichello (had Toyota not left, he'd have had the number 14 he started his career with)
12. Nico Hulkenberg

*Renault (likely to stay, but not certain)
14. Robert Kubica
15. * (Grosjean, di Grassi, Kobayashi, Glock)

Force India Mercedes
16. Adrian Sutil
17 * (Liuzzi, Glock, Trulli, Kovaleinen)

Toro Rosso Ferrari
18. Sebastien Buemi
19. Jaime Alguersuari

Lotus *Cosworth
20. * (Sato, Davidson, Klien)
21. * (Trulli, di Grassi, Kovaleinen, AN Other)

US F1 *Cosworth
22. * (Danica Patrick, Scott Speed, Marco Andretti, Wickens)
23. * (Fisichella, De La Rosa, Gene, Trulli, Bourdais)

Campos Meta *Cosworth
24. Bruno Senna
25. * (De La Rosa, Gene, anyone Spanish, anyone else)

Manor/Virgin *Cosworth
26. * (Paffett, Davidson, ...)
27. * (Petrov, Soucek, ...)

For most of the new teams, all names are in the hat. We'll see come January who's going where.

Auto Motor und Sport's driver rankings (and my own)

Auto Motor und Sport have ranked the drivers in the 2009 championship. Their order is reporduced below - for details visit the link above. Bracketed drivers were not included in the ranking (I've brought them into their would-be place) since they competed in less than 1/3 of the season:

(Kamui Kobayashi)
1. Rubens Barrichello
2. Jenson Button
3. Sebastian Vettel
4. Nico Rosberg
5. Mark Webber
6. Felipe Massa
7. Timo Glock
8. Kimi Räikkönen
9. Fernando Alonso
10. Lewis Hamilton
11. Nick Heidfeld
12. Jarno Trulli
13. Robert Kubica
14. Adrian Sutil
15. Heikki Kovaleinen
16. Sebastien Buemi
17. Nelson Piquet
(Tonio Liuzzi)
18. Giancarlo Fisichella
19. Kazuki Nakajima
20. Sebastien Bourdais
21. Jaime Alguersuari
22. Romain Grosjean
(Luca Badoer)

Personally, I couldn't agree with their assesment. With Luca Badoer taking last place, my ranking of the other 24 is as follows:

1. Lewis Hamilton (dragged his awful car to the front, outshining his teammate throughout)
2. Nico Rosberg (comprehensively better than his teammate, he almost dragged Williams to 5th in constructors, alone)

3. Jenson Button (superb, unbeatable with best car, weak without it)

4. Sebastian Vettel (superb in Malaysia and Silverstone, he failed to take advantage of the best car for 60% of the season)
5. Rubens Barrichello (narrrowly outdriven by teammate when car was at its best, he returned the favour when times were tougher)
6. Kimi Räikkönen (string of podiums mid-season ended by Ferrari's development switch to 2010 car)
7. Felipe Massa (season was just coming good when it was horrifically cut short)
8. Kamui Kobayashi (superb in Abu Dhabi, dangerous in Interlagos, clearly the best newcomer)
9. Robert Kubica (some excellent late-season drives camouflaged a bad year)
10. Jarno Trulli (consistently slightly better than his teammate, with pole in Bahrain the highlight)
11. Timo Glock (drives in Malaysia and Singapore in poor car worth mention, but he didn't take advantage of the good car he had until Spain).
12. Mark Webber (only took advantage of a superb car on two occassions)
13. Fernando Alonso (Renault gave up developing their car, but Fernando was outshone by Hamilton and Raikkonen in similar situations)
14. Sebastien Buemi (points on debut and at finale, made the most of his car and saw off a more experienced teammate - as Rubens Barrichello did in 1993).
15. Nick Heidfeld (drove very well in Malaysia, otherwise hardly noticeable)
16. Giancarlo Fisichella (superb in Belgium, otherwise mediocre)
17. Adrian Sutil (a few good races couldn't disguise a poor year)
18. Heikki Kovaleinen (comprehensibly outdriven by his teammate, like most drivers below)
19. Tonio Liuzzi (never outshone his teammate, but which replacement did?)
20. Romain Grosjean (more consistent than his predecessor, but not spectacular)
21. Nelson Piquet jnr
22. Jaime Alguersuari (in the course of a few races, he was nearly matching his teammate)
23. Sebastien Bourdais
24. Kazuki Nakajima (His team-mate finished the season with more points than any Toyota powered driver, yet Kazuki didn't manage a single point).
25. Luca Badoer

2010 lineup (amended)

Well 2009 is nearly over, so what awaits us next year? Let's run through the grid in order:
In bold are some edits made AFTER the Abu Dhabi GP

Brawn-Mercedes
1 - Button (90% chance) 95%
2 - Rosberg (70%) 90%
If not - Barrichello, Heidfeld Heidfeld

Red Bull-Renault (or Mercedes) Renault
3 - Vettel (100%)
4 - Webber (90%)
If not - Raikkonen

McLaren Mercedes
5 - Hamilton (100%)
6 - Raikkonen (60%) 80%
If not - Button, Kovaleinen, Heidfeld

Ferrari
7 - Alonso (100%)
8 - Massa (90%)
If not - Fisichella

Toyota
9 - Trulli (60%) Kobayashi (90%)
10 - Kobayashi (50%)
If not - Raikkonen, Glock, Barrichello, Nakajima, Heidfeld, Sato

Williams - Cosworth (Renault, Mercedes?) Cosworth
11 - Barrichello (70%) CONFIRMED
12 - Hulkenberg (80%) CONFIRMED
If not - Rosberg, Glock, Kovaleinen, Heidfeld

Renault
14 - Kubica (100%)
15 - Grosjean (60%) Glock (70%)
If not - di Grassi, Senna, Heidfeld, Glock

Force India Mercedes
16 - Sutil (80%) 90%
17 - Liuzzi (50%) Kovaleinen (50%)
If not - Paffett, Senna, Heidfeld, Glock, Kovaleinen

Toro Rosso Ferrari
18 - Buemi (90%)
19 - Alguersuari (90%)
If not - Hartley, Bortolotti

?Lotus - Cosworth?
??
??
From - Trulli, Heidfeld, Kovaleinen, Davidson, Glock, etc

Campos - Cosworth
Senna CONFIRMED
??
From - De La Rosa? Any of the above drivers who aren't chosen

US F1 Cosworth
??
??
From - Heidfeld, rookies, Americans, any of the drivers who miss out above

Manor/Virgin - Cosworth
??
??
From - Anyone. Suggestions welcome